Forecasting Australian sugar yields using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index

Yields for the Australian sugar industry can vary seasonally and regionally. Advanced knowledge of likely sugar productivity levels for mill regions in a particular season would assist marketers to forward sell Australian sugar, and allow mill managers and harvest operators to better plan for the coming season. Given that climate is a key driver of productivity, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential usefulness of a climate forecast system which incorporates five patterns or phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to forecast sugar yields. The chance of obtaining a sugar yield above the long-term median was computed for each SOI phase across eight regions which span the coastline of Queensland, where most of Australia's sugarcane is grown. Results indicate that for certain regions, the chance of obtaining an above average crop can be greatly increased, and in some cases decreased depending on the phase of the SOI. Since many decisions in the Australian sugar industry are based on crop size, the SOI phases provide a useful tool for enhancing decision making and risk management capability for the industry.

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MODSIM01: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation

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978-0-86740-525-5

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