Downscaled rainfall projections for the Burdekin, Mackay and NSW

Conference Publication ResearchOnline@JCU

Everingham, Y.;Sexton, J.;Timbal, B.

Abstract

An excess or deficit in rainfall can affect regional crop productivity and sugar industry operations. This paper investigated the implications of climate change on seasonal rainfall in the Burdekin, Mackay and NSW using a range of downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Eleven statistically downscaled GCMs were used to produce seasonal rainfall totals for the base period 1961 to 2000. Future GCM projections for 2046 to 2065 were then downscaled for a low (B1) and high (A2) emissions scenario and compared with the base period. Spatial changes in rainfall patterns were examined and confidence intervals were used to assess the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of paired model differences between the two time periods. The spatial maps demonstrated that changes in rainfall patterns were not uniform within a region. The confidence intervals suggested it was plausible for industry to consider planning for an increase in summer rainfall (A2 scenario) for the Burdekin, and a decrease in summer (A2 scenario) and winter (B1 scenario) rainfall for NSW. These findings will assist industry adapt to a changing climate.

Journal

Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists. Proceedings

Publication Name

Proc Aust Soc Sugar Cane Technol

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ISBN/ISSN

0726-0822

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Townsville, QLD, Australia

Publisher

Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists

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Publisher Location

Mackay, QLD, Australia

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