Climate-resilient landscapes: an adaptation case study in NSW’s Northern Rivers region and the Wet Tropics of Queensland

Principal Investigator

This project aims to develop a climate change adaptation plan for focal threatened species and ecosystems of the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales (component 1) (already approved and underway) and the Wet Tropics of Queensland (component 2) (seeking approval for commencement 2025). This project addresses the escalating climate risks in the region for species, habitats and ecosystems. These are interacting with existing threatening processes such as feral animals, weeds and development pressures. Species distributions are shifting in response to warming temperatures and changing patterns of rainfall. Sea level rise is impacting coastal processes and ecosystems. In addition to these climate trends, the region has experienced unprecedented drought, bushfires and floods in rapid succession over a 3-year period. These have impacted and stressed both natural and human systems. Future climate projections point to ongoing increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of these extreme weather events with cascading, compounding and aggregating impacts. The Northern Rivers region contains significant natural and cultural assets and has vulnerable species at increasing risk of local or global extinction. Many vulnerable ecosystems are at risk of degradation and ecological collapse. Climate change adaptation planning is urgently needed to identify actions that can reduce the climate-related risks to focal species and ecosystems in the region. Furthermore, because adaptation is needed now and in the long term, adaptation strategies and options must be feasible and effective, have social licence, be culturally appropriate, and be informed by local knowledge including traditional knowledge to be sustainable. This is a problem facing all landscapes and communities throughout Australia. The Northern Rivers region is a suitable case study to develop and test the necessary approaches because of its rich natural and cultural assets, the experienced impacts from a rapidly changing climate, and well-organised and mature community networks, with supportive local and state government initiatives. This project will develop a climate change adaptation plan which identifies the key climate risks for selected species and ecosystems, and documents feasible strategies and options to manage these risks. We will also develop a web-based decision-support platform that provides data, information, guidance and planning tools for stakeholders and decision-makers. A community-centred approach will better enable sustainable outcomes with adaptation solutions that are locally supported, aligned and culturally appropriate. We will work with local Landcare and wildlife conservation groups, federal, state and local government agencies, and natural resource management (NRM) groups to develop a climate adaptation plan and associated data information and decision support. We will draw on community-centred adaptation planning processes developed and tested over the last 4 years in a project funded by the Australian Research Council and undertaken by Griffith University in collaboration with the Shoalhaven City Council. This research has identified effective approaches for engaging with local communities, eliciting values, principles and feasible adaptation responses, and integrating these into formal local-government planning processes. Our use of risk and decision-support models builds on Griffith University’s application of them in prior climate adaptation research. We will also draw on spatial modelling approaches recently developed by Griffith University that enable fine-resolution mapping of habitat for arboreal wildlife, including old-growth structures critical for hollow-dependent fauna and species-specific connectivity corridor analysis. We will also use existing species and habitat data, including from federal and state government sources, current and future climate data from the Climate Systems Hub, and other relevant data such as flooding risks from CSIRO. Our approach is based on the climate adaptation process and will involve 4 components: (i) Focal species and ecosystems; (ii) Climate risk assessment; (iii) Adaptation Plan; and (iv) Decision Support. Socio-economic and cultural considerations will be incorporated into all components of the project including the identification of focal species and ecosystems.

01 Jan 2025 - 30 Jun 2027

N/A