The increased risk of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus: effects of the interaction between temperature variability and dromedary exposure
Journal Contribution ResearchOnline@JCUAbstract
Background: Environmental factors plays a very crucial role in the spread of infectious diseases especially those that are transmitted via pathogenic droplets such as MERS-CoV and Ebola. Recent data suggest a higher prevalence of MERS-CoV infection in dromedary camels in winter months compared to summer months within middle eastern countries. It is speculated that increase animal-to-human transmission in winter could exacerbate the putative human-to-human transmission via respiratory secretions. Therefore, this study focuses on investigating the effects of temperature variability and exposure to dromedary on the risk of MERS. Methods and materials: Often, exposure to certain environmental factors produces effects lasting well beyond the exposure period and with an increase in risk occurring from few hours to later in the future. In this study, we used time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models with doubly penalized spline to provide greater flexibility to the temperature-lag-MERS association. We also estimate the burden of the disease that can be attributed to temperature among patients exposed to dromedary camels. Results: Preliminary results revealed that the optimal temperature for MERS in the study area was 27.2 °C. The increased risk of MERS associated with high temperature indicates that environmental and dromedary interactions at plays a significant role in the transportation of the pathogens. Conclusion: Temperature variability in the winter months is associated with high risk of MERS as well as dromedary contact. MERS should not be regarded as seasonal infection because it occurs throughout the year, however the increased risk and timing of MERS peaks in lower temperatures clearly present a challenge.
Journal
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
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Volume
101
ISBN/ISSN
1878-3511
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Issue
S1
Pages Count
2
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Publisher
Elsevier
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EISSN
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DOI
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.081