Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Sullivan, Martin J.P.;Lewis, Simon L.;Affum-baffoe, Kofi;Castilho, Carolina;Costa, Flávia;Sanchez, Aida Cuni;Ewango, Corneille E.N.;Hubau, Wannes;Marimon, Beatriz;Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel;Qie, Lan;Sonké, Bonaventure;Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo;Baker, Timothy R.;Brienen, Roel J.W.;Feldpausch, Ted R.;Galbraith, David;Gloor, Manuel;Malhi, Yadvinder;Aiba, Shin-Ichiro;Alexiades, Miguel N.;Almeida, Everton C.;de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida;Alvarez Davila, Esteban;Loayza, Patricia Alvarez;Andrade, Ana;Vieira, Simone Aparecida;Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.;Araujo-murakami, Alejandro;Arets, Eric J.M.M.;Arroyo, Luzmila;Ashton, Peter;Aymard, Gerardo C.;Baccaro, Fabricio B.;Banin, Lindsay F.;Baraloto, Christopher;Camargo, Plinio Barbosa;Barlow, Jos;Barroso, Jorcely;Bastin, Jean-Francois;Batterman, Sarah A.;Beeckman, Hans;Begne, Serge K.;Bennett, Amy C.;Berenguer, Erika;Berry, Nicholas;Blanc, Lilian;Boeckx, Pascal;Bogaert, Jan;Bonal, Damien;Bongers, Frans;Bradford, Matt;Brearley, Francis Q.;Brncic, Terry;Brown, Foster;Burban, Benoit;Camargo, Jose Luis;Castro, Wendeson;Ceron, Carlos;Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto;Moscoso, Victor Chama;Chave, Jerome;Chezeaux, Eric;Clark, Connie J.;de Souza, Fernanda Coelho;Collins, Murray;Comiskey, James A.;Cornejo Valverde, Fernando;Corrales Medina, Massiel;da Costa, Lola;Dancak, Martin;Dargie, Greta C.;Davies, Stuart;Davila Cardozo, Nallaret;de Haulleville, Thales;de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante;del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon;Derroire, Geraldine;Di Fiore, Anthony;Doucet, Jean-Louis;Dourdain, Aurelie;Droissart, Vincent;Fernanda Duque, Luisa;Ekoungoulou, Romeo;Elias, Fernando;Erwin, Terry;Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane;Fauset, Sophie;Ferreira, Joice;Flores Llampazo, Gerardo;Foli, Ernest;Ford, Andrew;Gilpin, Martin;Hall, Jefferson S.;Hamer, Keith C.;Hamilton, Alan C.;Harris, David J.;Hart, Terese B.;Hedl, Radim;Herault, Bruno;Herrera, Rafael;Higuchi, Niro;Hladik, Annette;Honorio Coronado, Euridice;Huamantupa-chuquimaco, Isau;Huaraca Huasco, Walter;Jeffery, Kathryn J.;Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana;Kalamandeen, Michelle;Djuikouo, Marie Noel Kamdem;Kearsley, Elizabeth;Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi;Kho, Lip Khoon;Killeen, Timothy;Kitayama, Kanehiro;Klitgaard, Bente;Koch, Alexander;Labriere, Nicolas;Laurance, William;Laurance, Susan;Leal, Miguel E.;Levesley, Aurora;Lima, Adriano J.N.;Lisingo, Janvier;Lopes, Aline P.;López-gonzález, Gabriela;Lovejoy, Tom;Lovett, Jon C.;Lowe, Richard;Magnusson, William E.;Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba;Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto;Marimon, Ben Hur;Marshall, Andrew R.;Marthews, Toby;de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias;Maycock, Colin;Melgaco, Karina;Mendoza, Casimiro;Metali, Faizah;Mihindou, Vianet;Milliken, William;Mitchard, Edward T.A.;Morandi, Paulo S.;Mossman, Hannah L.;Nagy, Laszlo;Nascimento, Henrique;Neill, David;Nilus, Reuben;Núñez Vargas, Percy;Palacios, Walter;Camacho, Nadir Pallqui;Peacock, Julie;Pendry, Colin;Penuela Mora, Maria Cristina;Pickavance, Georgia C.;Pipoly, John;Pitman, Nigel;Playfair, Maureen;Poorter, Lourens;Poulsen, John R.;Poulsen, Axel Dalberg;Preziosi, Richard;Prieto, Adriana;Primack, Richard B.;Ramírez-angulo, Hirma;Reitsma, Jan;Rejou-Mechain, Maxime;Restrepo Correa, Zorayda;de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues;Rodriguez Bayona, Lily;Roopsind, Anand;Rudas, Agustín;Rutishauser, Ervan;Abu Salim, Kamariah;Salomão, Rafael P.;Schietti, Juliana;Sheil, Douglas;Silva, Richarlly C.;Silva Espejo, Javier;Valeria, Camila Silva;Silveira, Marcos;Simo-Droissart, Murielle;Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni;Singh, James;Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos;Stahl, Clement;Stropp, Juliana;Sukri, Rahayu;Sunderland, Terry;Svatek, Martin;Swaine, Michael D.;Swamy, Varun;Taedoumg, Hermann;Talbot, Joey;Taplin, James;Taylor, David;ter Steege, Hans;Terborgh, John;Thomas, Raquel;Thomas, Sean C.;Torres-Lezama, Armando;Umunay, Peter;Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis;Van Der Heijden, Geertje;van der Hout, Peter;Van Der Meer, Peter;van Nieuwstadt, Mark;Verbeeck, Hans;Vernimmen, Ronald;Vicentini, Alberto;Guimaraes Vieira, Ima Celia;Torre, Emilio Vilanova;Vleminckx, Jason;Vos, Vincent;Wang, Ophelia;White, Lee J.Y.;Willcock, Simon;Woods, John T.;Wortel, Verginia;Young, Kenneth;Zagt, Roderick;Zemagho, Lise;Zuidema, Pieter A.;Zwerts, Joeri A.;Phillips, Oliver L.

William Laurance

Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Journal

Science

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N/A

Volume

368

ISBN/ISSN

1095-9203

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Issue

6493

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Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science

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DOI

10.1126/science.aaw7578