Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora

Ter Steege, Hans;Prado, Paulo I.;Lima, Renato A. F. de;Pos, Edwin;de Souza Coelho, Luiz;de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes;Salomão, Rafael P.;Amaral, Iêda Leão;de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia;Castilho, Carolina V.;Phillips, Oliver L.;Guevara, Juan Ernesto;de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo;Cárdenas López, Dairon;Magnusson, William E.;Wittmann, Florian;Martins, Maria Pires;Sabatier, Daniel;Irume, Mariana Victória;da Silva Guimarães, José Renan;Molino, Jean-François;Banki, Olaf S.;Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez;Pitman, Nigel C.A.;Ramos, José Ferreira;Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel;Venticinque, Eduardo Martins;Luize, Bruno Garcia;Núñez Vargas, Percy;Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire;de Leão Novo, Evlyn Márcia Moraes;Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa;Terborgh, John;Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto;Casula, Katia Regina;Honorio Coronado, Euridice N.;Montero, Juan Carlos;Duque, Alvaro;Costa, Flávia R.C.;Castaño Arboleda, Nicolás;Schöngart, Jochen;Zartman, Charles Eugene;Killeen, Timothy J.;Marimon, Beatriz S.;Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur;Vásquez, Rodolfo;Mostacedo, Bonifacio;Demarchi, Layon O.;Feldpausch, Ted R.;Engel, Julien;Petronelli, Pascal;Baraloto, Christopher;Assis, Rafael L.;Castellanos, Hernán;Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni;de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante;Quaresma, Adriano;Laurance, Susan G.W.;Rincón, Lorena M.;Andrade, Ana;Sousa, Thaiane R.;Camargo, José Luís;Schietti, Juliana;Laurance, William F.;de Queiroz, Helder Lima;Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça;Lopes, Maria Aparecida;de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle;Magalhães, José Leonardo Lima;Brienen, Roel;Aymard C., Gerardo A.;Revilla, Juan David Cardenas;Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães;Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat;Stevenson, Pablo R.;Feitosa, Yuri Oliveira;Duivenvoorden, Joost F.;Mogollón, Hugo F.;Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro;Ferreira, Leandro Valle;Lozada, José Rafael;Comiskey, James A.;de Toledo, José Julio;Damasco, Gabriel;Dávila, Nállarett;Lopes, Aline;Garcia-Villacorta, Roosevelt;Draper, Freddie;Vicentini, Alberto;Cornejo Valverde, Fernando;Lloyd, Jon;Gomes, Vitor H.F.;Neill, David;Alonso, Alfonso;Dallmeier, Francisco;de Souza, Fernanda Coelho;Gribel, Rogerio;Arroyo, Luzmila;Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes;de Aguiar, Daniel Praia Portela;do Amaral, Dário Dantas;Pansonato, Marcelo Petratti;Feeley, Kenneth J.;Berenguer, Erika;Fine, Paul V.A.;Guedes, Marcelino Carneiro;Barlow, Jos;Ferreira, Joice;Villa, Boris;Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina;Jiménez, Eliana M.;Licona, Juan Carlos;Cerón, Carlos;Thomas, Raquel;Maas, Paul;Silveira, Marcos;Henkel, Terry W.;Stropp, Juliana;Paredes, Marcos Ríos;Dexter, Kyle G.;Daly, Doug;Baker, Tim R.;Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau;Milliken, William;Pennington, Toby;Tello, J. Sebastien;Pena, José Luis Marcelo;Peres, Carlos A.;Klitgaard, Bente;Fuentes, Alfredo;Silman, Miles R.;Di Fiore, Anthony;von Hildebrand, Patricio;Chave, Jerome;Van Andel, Tinde R.;Hilário, Renato Richard;Phillips, Juan Fernando;Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo;Noronha, Janaína Costa;Prieto, Adriana;Gonzales, Therany;de Sá Carpanedo, Rainiellene;Gonzales, George Pepe Gallardo;Gómez, Ricardo Zárate;de Jesus Rodrigues, Domingos;Zent, Egleé L.;Ruschell, Ademir R.;Vos, Vincent Antoine;Fonty, Émile;Junqueira, André Braga;Doza, Hilda Paulette Dávila;Hoffman, Bruce;Zent, Stanford;Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques;Malhi, Yadvinder;de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos;de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula;Silva, Natalino;Barbosa, Flávia Rodrigues;Vela, César I.A.;Pinto, Linder Felipe Mozombite;Rudas, Agustín;Albuquerque, Bianca Weiss;Umaña, Maria Natalia;Carrero Márquez, Yrma Andreina;Van Der Heijden, Geertje;Young, Kenneth R.;Tirado, Milton;Correa, Diego F.;Sierra, Rodrigo;Costa, Janaina Barbosa Pedrosa;Rocha, Maira;Vilanova Torre, Emilio;Wang, Ophelia;Oliveira, Alexandre A.;Kalamandeen, Michelle;Vriesendorp, Corine;Ramírez-angulo, Hirma;Holmgren, Milena;Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade;Galbraith, David;Flores, Bernardo Monteiro;Scudeller, Veridiana Vizoni;Cano, Angela;Ahuite Reategui, Manuel Augusto;Mesones, Italo;Baider, Claudia;Mendoza, Casimiro;Zagt, Roderick;Urrego Giraldo, Ligia Estela;Ferreira, Cid;Villarroel, Daniel;Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo;Farfan, William;Farfan-Rios, William;Casas, Luisa Fernanda;Cárdenas, Sasha;Balslev, Henrik;Torres-lezama, Armando;Alexiades, Miguel N.;Garcia-cabrera, Karina;Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis;Valderrama Sandoval, Elvis H.;Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy;Hernandez, Lionel;Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe;Pansini, Susamar;Palacios Cuenca, Walter;de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida;Pauletto, Daniela;Levesley, Aurora;Melgaço, Karina;Pickavance, Georgia

William Laurance

Abstract

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

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Scientific Reports

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2045-2322

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Nature Publishing Group

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DOI

10.1038/s41598-020-66686-3