Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

James, Spencer L;Castle, Chris D;Dingels, Zachary V;Fox, Jack T;Hamilton, Erin B;Liu, Zichen;Roberts, Nicholas L S;Sylte, Dillon O;Bertolacci, Gregory J;Cunningham, Matthew;Henry, Nathaniel J;LeGrand, Kate E;Abdelalim, Ahmed;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi;Abedi, Aidin;Abegaz, Kedir Hussein;Abosetugn, Akine Eshete;Abushouk, Abdelrahman I;Adebayo, Oladimeji M;Adsuar, Jose C;Advani, Shailesh M;Agudelo-Botero, Marcela;Ahmad, Tauseef;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir;Ahmed, Rushdia;Eddine Aichour, Miloud Taki;Alahdab, Fares;Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour;Alema, Niguse Meles;Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun;Alghnam, Suliman A;Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir;Ali, Saqib;Alinia, Cyrus;Alipour, Vahid;Aljunid, Syed Mohamed;Almasi-Hashiani, Amir;Almasri, Nihad A;Altirkawi, Khalid;Abdeldayem Amer, Yasser Sami;Andrei, Catalina Liliana;Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza;T Antonio, Carl Abelardo;Anvari, Davood;Yaw Appiah, Seth Christopher;Arabloo, Jalal;Arab-Zozani, Morteza;Arefi, Zohreh;Aremu, Olatunde;Ariani, Filippo;Arora, Amit;Asaad, Malke;Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina;Ayano, Getinet;Ayanore, Martin Amogre;Azarian, Ghasem;Badawi, Alaa;Badiye, Ashish D;Baig, Atif Amin;Bairwa, Mohan;Bakhtiari, Ahad;Balachandran, Arun;Banach, Maciej;Banerjee, Srikanta K;Banik, Palash Chandra;Banstola, Amrit;Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn;Bärnighausen, Till Winfried;Barzegar, Akbar;Bayati, Mohsen;Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad;Bedi, Neeraj;Behzadifar, Masoud;Belete, Habte;Bennett, Derrick A;Bensenor, Isabela M;Berhe, Kidanemaryam;Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth;Bhardwaj, Pankaj;Bhat, Anusha Ganapati;Bhattacharyya, Krittika;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A;Bibi, Sadia;Bijani, Ali;Boloor, Archith;Borges, Guilherme;Borschmann, Rohan;Borzì, Antonio Maria;Boufous, Soufiane;Braithwaite, Dejana;Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich;Brugha, Traolach;Budhathoki, Shyam S;Car, Josip;Cárdenas, Rosario;Carvalho, Félix;Castaldelli-Maia, João Mauricio;Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A;Castelpietra, Giulio;Catalá-López, Ferrán;Cerin, Ester;Chandan, Joht S;Chapman, Jens Robert;Chattu, Vijay Kumar;Chattu, Soosanna Kumary;Chatziralli, Irini;Chaudhary, Neha;Cho, Daniel Youngwhan;Choi, Jee-Young J;Kabir Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul;Christopher, Devasahayam J;Chu, Dinh-Toi;Cicuttini, Flavia M;Coelho, João M;Costa, Vera M;Dahlawi, Saad M A;Daryani, Ahmad;Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto;Leo, Diego De;Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen;Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam;Demsie, Desalegn Getnet;Deribe, Kebede;Desai, Rupak;Nasab, Mostafa Dianati;Silva, Diana Dias da;Dibaji Forooshani, Zahra Sadat;Do, Hoa Thi;Doyle, Kerrie E;Driscoll, Tim Robert;Dubljanin, Eleonora;Adema, Bereket Duko;Eagan, Arielle Wilder;Elemineh, Demelash Abewa;El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I;El-Khatib, Ziad;Ellingsen, Christian Lycke;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed;Eskandarieh, Sharareh;Eyawo, Oghenowede;Faris, Pawan Sirwan;Faro, Andre;Farzadfar, Farshad;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad;Fernandes, Eduarda;Ferrara, Pietro;Fischer, Florian;Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin;Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich;Foroutan, Masoud;Francis, Joel Msafiri;Franklin, Richard Charles;Fukumoto, Takeshi;Geberemariyam, Biniyam Sahiledengle;Gebremariam, Hadush;Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork;Gebremeskel, Leake G;Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn;Gebremichael, Berhe;Gedefaw, Getnet Azeze;Geta, Birhanu;Getenet, Agegnehu Bante;Ghafourifard, Mansour;Ghamari, Farhad;Gheshlagh, Reza Ghanei;Gholamian, Asadollah;Gilani, Syed Amir;Gill, Tiffany K;Goudarzian, Amir Hossein;Goulart, Alessandra C;Grada, Ayman;Grivna, Michal;Guimarães, Rafael Alves;Guo, Yuming;Gupta, Gaurav;Haagsma, Juanita A;Hall, Brian James;Hamadeh, Randah R;Hamidi, Samer;Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes;Haro, Josep Maria;Hasanzadeh, Amir;Hassan, Shoaib;Hassanipour, Soheil;Hassankhani, Hadi;Hassen, Hamid Yimam;Havmoeller, Rasmus;Hendrie, Delia;Heydarpour, Fatemeh;Híjar, Martha;Ho, Hung Chak;Hoang, Chi Linh;Hole, Michael K;Holla, Ramesh;Hossain, Naznin;Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi;Hostiuc, Sorin;Hu, Guoqing;Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel;Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen;Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja;Naghibi Irvani, Seyed Sina;Mofizul Islam, M;Shariful Islam, Sheikh Mohammed;Ivers, Rebecca Q;Jahani, Mohammad Ali;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo;Jalilian, Farzad;Jayaraman, Sudha;Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra;Jha, Ravi Prakash;John-Akinola, Yetunde O;Jonas, Jost B;Jones, Kelly M;Joseph, Nitin;Joukar, Farahnaz;Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy;Jungari, Suresh Banayya;Jürisson, Mikk;Kabir, Ali;Kahsay, Amaha;Kalankesh, Leila R;Kalhor, Rohollah;Kamil, Teshome Abegaz;Kanchan, Tanuj;Kapoor, Neeti;Karami, Manoochehr;Kasaeian, Amir;Kassaye, Hagazi Gebremedhin;Kavetskyy, Taras;Kayode, Gbenga A;Keiyoro, Peter Njenga;Kelbore, Abraham Getachew;Khader, Yousef Saleh;Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif;Khalid, Nauman;Khalil, Ibrahim A;Khalilov, Rovshan;Khan, Maseer;Khan, Ejaz Ahmad;Khan, Junaid;Khanna, Tripti;Khazaei, Salman;Khazaie, Habibolah;Khundkar, Roba;Kiirithio, Daniel N;Kim, Young-Eun;Kim, Yun Jin;Kim, Daniel;Kisa, Sezer;Kisa, Adnan;Komaki, Hamidreza;Kondlahalli, Shivakumar K M;Koolivand, Ali;Korshunov, Vladimir Andreevich;Koyanagi, Ai;Kraemer, Moritz U G;Krishan, Kewal;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk;Kugbey, Nuworza;Kumar, Nithin;Kumar, Manasi;Kumar, Vivek;Kumar, Narinder;Kumaresh, Girikumar;Lami, Faris Hasan;Lansingh, Van C;Lasrado, Savita;Latifi, Arman;Lauriola, Paolo;Vecchia, Carlo La;Leasher, Janet L;Huey Lee, Shaun Wen;Li, Shanshan;Liu, Xuefeng;Lopez, Alan D;Lotufo, Paulo A;Lyons, Ronan A;Machado, Daiane Borges;Madadin, Mohammed;Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy;Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur;Majdan, Marek;Majeed, Azeem;Maled, Venkatesh;Malta, Deborah Carvalho;Manafi, Navid;Manafi, Amir;Manda, Ana-Laura;Manjunatha, Narayana;Mansour-Ghanaei, Fariborz;Mansournia, Mohammad Ali;Maravilla, Joemer C;Mason-Jones, Amanda J;Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra;Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard;Maulik, Pallab K;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan;Melketsedik, Zeleke Aschalew;Memiah, Peter T N;Mendoza, Walter;Menezes, Ritesh G;Mengesha, Melkamu Merid;Meretoja, Tuomo J;Meretoja, Atte;Merie, Hayimro Edemealem;Mestrovic, Tomislav;Miazgowski, Bartosz;Miazgowski, Tomasz;Miller, Ted R;Mini, G K;Mirica, Andreea;Mirrakhimov, Erkin M;Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi;Mithra, Prasanna;Moazen, Babak;Moghadaszadeh, Masoud;Mohamadi, Efat;Mohammad, Yousef;Darwesh, Aso Mohammad;Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah;Mohammadpourhodki, Reza;Mohammed, Shafiu;Mohammed, Jemal Abdu;Mohebi, Farnam;Mohseni Bandpei, Mohammad A;Molokhia, Mariam;Monasta, Lorenzo;Moodley, Yoshan;Moradi, Masoud;Moradi, Ghobad;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar;Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah;Morawska, Lidia;Velásquez, Ilais Moreno;Morrison, Shane Douglas;Mossie, Tilahun Belete;Muluneh, Atalay Goshu;Musa, Kamarul Imran;Mustafa, Ghulam;Naderi, Mehdi;Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman;Naik, Gurudatta;Naimzada, Mukhammad David;Najafi, Farid;Nangia, Vinay;Nascimento, Bruno Ramos;Naserbakht, Morteza;Nayak, Vinod;Nazari, Javad;Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith;Negoi, Ionut;Ngunjiri, Josephine W;Nguyen, Trang Huyen;Nguyen, Cuong Tat;Nguyen, Diep Ngoc;Thi Nguyen, Huong Lan;Nikbakhsh, Rajan;Anggraini 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Richard Franklin

Abstract

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Journal

Injury Prevention

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1475-5785

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SUPP_1

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BMJ Group

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DOI

10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043531